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steel price analysis

August domestic spot steel prices continue rising trend, next September, the steel price trends? Speculation is expected to be more dense, could force Kim Koo? Analysis is available from the following aspects:

  • The supply side: early August focused on steel prices daily mean 1.6986 million tons of crude steel, from the previous 4.8%. Current General Mills profits better subjective yield the greatest interest. But completion 304 stainless steel capacity in China is not ideal, recent Central and State-owned enterprises completed ahead of time between early November and the end of the month. Policy capacity with the stakes, on the formation of mill capacity release will still be inhibited. Inventory and national inventory of 304 stainless steel market since late July maintaining rising trend for six consecutive weeks, on the one hand show that the steel price increases circulation to the futures initiative promoted, on the other hand also shows that the weak final demand, inventory digested slowly.
  • Requirements: 1-July the investment fully down, blow to market confidence is larger. 1-July growth rate of fixed assets and real estate funds have slid obvious slowdown in real estate sales, real estate investment has continued downward, manufacturing investment and private investment fell to the freezing point, and large downward pressure on overall investment and economic. Late but infrastructure investment is expected to remain high, and September is the traditional shopping season, market demand is expected to be slightly improved.
  • From national policy: with the capacity policy, 8 – November 304 stainless steel coal production capacity in China is expected to further speed up the process, the steel price movements will form a continuous positive. In addition, gradually tighten the personal real estate loans this month, policy impact on steel prices from early leaning positive steering more intertwined, will, to a certain extent affect market expectations.